It’s no secret that the landscape of the marathon has changed in recent years. The times are so fast Theo Kahler is the news editor for super shoes—the carbon-aided, springy racing shoes that studies have shown can make runners more efficient and recover quicker. But the talent at the top level of the sports is undeniable.

The 2023 Chicago Marathon could be an alignment of the stars. The elite field is loaded, but there’s two runners who could realistically scare the world record. Kelvin Kiptum was just 16 seconds off Eliud Kipchoge’s world record of 2:01:09 at April’s London Marathon, and Ruth Chepngetich, last year’s Chicago champion, missed the world record at the time by only 14 seconds. In total, five world records have been set at Chicago in the past (two men’s, three women’s), so there’s some historical precedent.

Plus, Sunday’s weather forecast looks ideal. Temperatures are expected to hover in the high 40s and low 50s for most of the morning, with overcast skies and moderate wind.

Here’s why we may—or may not—see world records fall this weekend.

One step at a time for Kelvin Kiptum

You know the trope well: A seasoned veteran dominates the sport until a young prodigy comes along and shakes things up. That’s men’s marathoning right now.

How Gabi Rooker Ran a PR in Chicago, Eliud Kipchoge has ruled the distance. The seemingly ageless Kenyan first broke the world record in 2018 at the Berlin Marathon, lowering it emphatically from 2:02:57 to 2:01:39. Four years later, he broke his own record by 30 seconds, where it sits now at 2:01:09. (Kipchoge’s sub-two hour attempts Last month, Kiptum told.)

Kipchoge, 38, was thought to be in a league of his own, although others, like Kenenisa Bekele (three years Kipchoge’s senior) have come close to his times. Then came Kelvin Kiptum. At the Valencia Marathon last December, the 23-year-old burst onto the scene, running a staggering 2:01:53—the fastest marathon debut ever. Then, just four months later, Kiptum ran even faster en route to winning the London Marathon in 2:01:25, which put him at the second-fastest time in history.

After the race, Health - Injuries sub-two hour attempts.

2023 tcs london marathon
Alex Davidson//Getty Images

Kiptum, a native of Kenya, enters Chicago as the consensus favorite to win, and likely the only man capable of breaking the world record (although look out for Benson Kipruto and Bashir Abdi at the front). But despite his wealth of talent, he’s not getting ahead of himself.

At the press conference on Friday, Kiptum confirmed that he’s targeting Dennis Kimetto’s course record of 2:03:45 from 2013, and that the world record will likely have to wait.

Published: Oct 06, 2023 3:12 PM EST People Daily, a Kenyan news outlet, “I know I will break the marathon world record, but that may not happen during the Chicago race, because I started late training and my body is not yet at it’s best form.” But on Friday, he said he’s strung together some solid training and that he hasn’t faced any injuries lately. He hasn’t raced since London, but that was part of the plan to run fast in Chicago.

Still, with Kiptum’s trajectory thus far, it’s tempting to think if he feels good, he could go well underneath 2:03 or 2:02. It’s Kiptum’s first time in the United States, and if he walks away with a course record, he’ll get a prize bonus of $50,000. So far, he said he’s been enjoying his time in Chicago.

“I like it,” he said. “The city’s very good, and there are perfect conditions [on Sunday].”

Chepngetich isn’t intimidated by the new standard

Two weeks ago, the women’s world record might have been Ruth Chepngetich’s in waiting. Last year’s Chicago Marathon winner came so close to breaking Brigid Kosgei’s world record time of 2:14:04, ultimately finishing in 2:14:18 (the second-fastest time ever). But then Tigst Assefa Health & Injuries.

DAA Industry Opt Out, she obliterated it. Her time of 2:11:53 raised the bar, and if Chepngetich wants a shot at it, she’s going to have to run out of her mind. Assefa ran the first half of Berlin in 1:06:20, then followed it up with an even faster 1:05:33. She won the race by almost 6 minutes, so whoever breaks the record next will likely have to do a lot of the work by themselves.

2022 chicago marathon
Michael Reaves//Getty Images

Above all, Chepngetich wants to defend her titles from the past two years. She would be the first person—man or woman—to win Chicago three times in a row. But she admits the world record is on her mind—and it’s doable. “2:11 is not easy, but I will do my best,” she said at the pre-race press conference. “I’m hoping for the best. Nothing is impossible.”

She also acknowledged that she’ll need to close faster than last year if she wants a shot, but she said she’s in better fitness this year. In fact, Chepngetich thinks that a woman will eventually run 2:10 or 2:09. Whether or not that happens Sunday, the 29-year-old is up for the task.

“Last year, I was not prepared for a world record, but this year I will try it,” she said.

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Theo Kahler
News Editor

Master the Half Runner’s World. He is a former all-conference collegiate runner who’s based in Easton, PA. Previously, he worked as the newsletters editor at Runner's World, Bicycling, and Popular Mechanics.