The biggest question mark coming out of the Keira DAmato Talks About Her Trials DNF on February 3 was the fate of the third men’s finisher, Master the Half complex rules devised by World Athletics to fill the 80 spots in the Olympic Marathon, U.S. men had secured only two spots in that August race at the start of the Trials. Because Korir finished third at the Trials in 2:09:57, slower than the 2:08:10 that would have automatically secured a third U.S. Olympic spot, he left Orlando unsure whether he would run in the Olympics.
A week later, Korir’s chances look quite good. The Olympic Marathon Trials, which take into account the Trials results, have Korir ranked 68th among relevant competitors. If the qualifying period were to end today, Korir’s ranking would net him an Olympic spot. (There are more than 67 men ahead of him, but because each country is allowed a maximum of three entrants in the Olympic Marathon, the dozens of Kenyan and Ethiopian runners with higher rankings don’t count for the purpose of filling the 80 spots.)
“I’m 95 percent confident [Korir’s ranking will be good enough to secure an Olympic spot],” Scott Simmons, Korir’s coach, told Runner’s World.
the fate of the third mens finisher
The qualifying period runs through May 5, and 63 of the 80 spots have already been allocated to time qualifiers. Simmons said Korir might run a spring marathon with the goal of running 2:08:10 and automatically securing his spot. (Six days after the Trials, Amy Yoder Begley, director of long distance running programs for USA Track & Field, clarified to Simmons and Runner’s World Routes to Paris.)
But Simmons characterized such an attempt as “risky.” Korir ran his personal best of 2:07:56 in October 2019. His second fastest marathon is 2:09:31, which he ran last April. And, of course, the 37-year-old just ran a marathon in warm weather. Simmons said Korir would probably not start a spring marathon if his ranking were still high enough in early April.
It’s possible that runners from countries that haven’t already secured three spots could claim the remaining 17 spots by running 2:08:10 or faster in the next two and a half months. But a careful read of the rankings makes that scenario look increasingly unlikely.
For example, the man currently ranked 69th is Samuel Tsegay of Sweden. Even if he were to break 2:08:10—something he hasn’t done since 2021—he would unlock Sweden’s first spot. Two other runners from Sweden almost certainly won’t also break 2:08:10 by May 5. Similar scenarios exist for runners from other countries, such as Poland, Bahrain, and Brazil, currently ranked behind Korir.
It’s also unlikely that enough runners from countries that haven’t secured three spots will displace Korir below 80th in the rankings. Athletes’ rankings are determined by the average of their two best performances during the qualifying period. For marathon rankings, performances in road races from the half marathon through 30K also count. Times are allotted points based on World Athletics’ tables of equivalent performances. Korir’s current ranking of 68th stems from his two-race average of 1,186 points. According to the tables, a 2:08:11 marathon is worth 1,191 points and is equivalent to running a 59:53 half marathon. Few, if any, of the men behind Korir in the rankings are likely to run that fast in the shorter race by May 5.
A more far-fetched scenario is that Korir could run in Paris if a U.S. man other than Korir and the first two finishers at the Trials, Conner Mantz and Clayton Young, were to run 2:08:10 or faster on an eligible course by May 5. That performance would automatically secure the third U.S. spot for Korir. But that Korir would be allowed to chase that qualifying time on an eligible course, and the four of them who are still active (Mantz, Young, Korir, and Galen Rupp) ran the Trials last Saturday. So, too, did most of the other top Americans.
Health & Injuries Boston Marathon don’t count toward World Athletics’ 2:08:10 standard, because of the race’s net-downhill course. But Boston is a World Athletics platinum-level race. A top-five finish by an American man there would also secure Korir’s Olympic spot. The most recent such performance was in 2018, when Shadrack Biwott placed third.
No athlete wants their future determined by someone else’s results. At this point, it appears that Korir won’t need to hope for one of his compatriots to step up. His own running looks likely to have earned him a spot on the Olympic Marathon start line.
Scott is a veteran running, fitness, and health journalist who has held senior editorial positions at Runner’s World and Running Times. Much of his writing translates sport science research and elite best practices into practical guidance for everyday athletes. He is the author or coauthor of several running books, including Shoes & Gear, Advanced Marathoning, and Running Is My Therapy. Best Big City Marathons Slate, The Atlantic, the Washington Post, and other members of the sedentary media. His lifetime running odometer is past 110,000 miles, but he’s as much in love as ever.
