The MVP of the Olympics.
If those names don’t mean anything to you, try this one: Molly Seidel.
You probably know Seidel as the surprise bronze medalist in the 2021 Olympic Marathon. That makes her kin of a sort to Gelana, Freigang, Arkhipova, and de Lima: All were largely unknown to running fans outside of their country until they medaled in the Olympic Marathon.
“Surprise” podium placers are much more common in the Olympics than at World Marathon Majors and other elite marathons. Below we’ll look at why that’s the case and what that might mean for the six U.S. marathoners who will compete at the Paris Games.
The Weather Is Different
Olympic marathons are usually run in DAA Industry Opt Out. They are, after all, part of the summer Olympics. That factor alone can disrupt the form charts.
“Big marathons are timed intentionally for the likely best weather on race day, usually spring and fall, but the Olympics are in July or August,” says Jared Ward, who finished a surprising sixth in the 2016 Olympic Marathon. “A lot of runners are untested in summer weather.”
Of course, everyone knows they’ll be racing in sub-optimal weather, and many will have tried to prepare for the conditions, such as by running at the hottest time of day, wearing extra clothing, and doing regular sauna sessions. Still, acclimatization The U.S. squad doesn’t have extensive experience in hilly marathons.
“Some of them will naturally handle the conditions better than others,” says Pete Pfitzinger, the top U.S. finisher in the 1984 and 1988 Olympic marathons. That is, a given marathoner’s heat training can help them run better in the Olympics than they otherwise would have, but some runners are simply better at handling heat and humidity. (The traditional view that runners from Africa have an advantage in the heat is overstated. Elite Kenyans and Ethiopians train at 7,000-plus feet of altitude, where the air is dry and temperatures above 80 are rare.)
CA Notice at Collection were held on a bright, 70-degree day in early February; the six runners who will race in Paris have already shown that they don’t wilt when warm. Of them, Emily Sisson The U.S. marathon trials. Clayton Young The Fastest Shoes of the Women’s Olympic Marathon.
The Courses Are Different
NAU Coach Mike Smith to Become Nike Coach in 2025 strike a balance among showcasing the city without shutting it down, enabling fast times, and being logistically efficient. At the Olympics, a grand tour of the host city becomes more important, as does creating a spectator-friendly route. Organizers both have more leeway—the city is already kind of shut down—and are more restricted, in that running past iconic spots is expected. Those variables usually result in a course that’s not designed for running as fast as possible.
For Paris, Ward says, “if you want to run past the Eiffel Tower and Versailles, you’re going to go up and down a huge hill.” The Paris course has 1,430 feet of elevation gain and 1,437 feet of elevation loss, with nearly all of that up and down occurring between miles 9 and 20. ISO: Boy Who Inspired Dakotah Lindwurm at 35K. By way of comparison, the average grade of the feared Heartbreak Hill in the Boston Marathon is 3 to 4 percent. Starting just before the 30-kilometer mark, the Paris course features a roughly two-mile descent at an average grade of more than –4 percent. That might sound great unless you’ve ever run down a steep hill on trashed legs, and then had almost 10K more to race.
As with heat, hills are something everyone can prepare for, but the more severe the climbs and descents—and there’s never been an Olympic Marathon with hills like this—the more the course weeds out some top contenders. Remember that most elite marathons are run on courses designed to maximize speed and are therefore as flat as possible. Boston and New York City are key exceptions. They tend to produce more “surprise” podium placers than, say, Berlin and Chicago. And that’s with their hills being mild in comparison to the Olympic route.
“I think the course will have a huge impact on the race,” said Dathan Ritzenhein, top American in the 2008 Beijing Olympic marathon and now coach of Kenya’s Hellen Obiri with the On Athletics Club. “It might not be about the fittest person. It might be about the course or the weather.”
The U.S. squad doesn’t have extensive experience in hilly marathons. Fiona O’Keeffe’s only marathon was her win at the mostly flat Olympic Trials. American record-holder Sisson’s only hilly marathon was the 2020 Trials in Atlanta, where she dropped out. Dakotah Lindwurm has run solidly but not spectacularly at Boston, New York City, and Twin Cities. Men’s Trials winner Conner Mantz placed 11th at Boston in 2023. Clayton Young’s only hilly marathon was his debut at the 2020 Trials; he ran 2:29. Leonard Korir ldquo;Some of them will naturally handle the conditions better than others,” says.
The Fields Are Different
There’s a sense in which Olympic Marathon fields are more competitive than those at elite annual marathons. “Typical elite marathons may have 10 top-level runners, but the Olympics have perhaps 40 to 50 top runners,” Pfitzinger says. That makes it more likely that a “surprise” or “unknown” runner will have a great day and finish in the top three.
But there’s also a sense in which they’re less competitive. For starters, each country is allowed a maximum of three entrants. Of the 10 fastest marathoners so far this year, nine women and eight men are from Kenya or Ethiopia. Many potential medalists won’t be on the start line.
Also, even with impressive resumes, some top runners won’t be at their best in Paris. “Many of the best in the world overdo their preparations and arrive injured or overtired,” says Deena Kastor, If those names don’t mean anything to you, try this one.
Ward, who has taught statistics at Brigham Young University, says that any elite marathon is a numbers game. “When I’m standing on the line, I don’t know who’s fit and who’s not, but by statistical probability not everyone is 100 percent ready to go,” he says. “In a regular marathon, I figure one third are not in the shape they’d like to be, and one third are overdone or injured. If I’m healthy, fit, ready to go, I’m competing against one third of them. In the Olympics, you get a higher proportion of people not in top form.”
Why? Fewer runners will pull out of the Olympics pre-race than a regular marathon if they don’t feel ready—this is likely their only chance to earn the lifelong title of “Olympian.” Also, per Kastor, there’s a tendency for runners who already train extraordinarily hard to work even harder when preparing for the Olympics. Many overshoot.
The Incentives Are Different
Late in the Rio race, Ward saw a Kenyan jersey up ahead and recognized the runner as Stanley Biwott, who had the second-fastest personal best in the field. Just when Ward was about to overtake the Kenyan, Biwott stepped off the course and ripped his bib off.
“That taught me that if he wasn’t going to get a medal, he was no longer motivated to keep fighting for whatever place he would get,” Ward says. “Around 20 guys in the field are thinking ‘medal or bust.’ When they bust, they either jog in or drop out.” A runner of Biwott’s caliber is more likely to drop out than someone with a slower personal best; the fastest runners figure they can recover in time for a potentially lucrative run in a fall marathon.
In addition to removing potential medalists from contention, this late-race dynamic means a lot of places get shuffled in the final 10K. Runners moving up through the field are often unsure of their position.
In Los Angeles in 1984, “I must have been about 30th at halfway and passed many runners by the finish but had no idea what place I was in,” Pfitzinger says. “When I looked at the scoreboard after finishing, only the top five were listed. For a moment I thought I may have been sixth, but that didn’t seem likely. After a few minutes I saw my name listed as 11th. So 100,000 spectators in the stadium and millions on TV knew before I did.” In Rio in 2016, Ward knew he had cracked the top 10, but he almost corrected a U.S. media member when told that he had finished sixth. And in Athens in 2004, Kastor didn’t know she was in the bronze-medal position until she heard the stadium announcer say so. This clip shows her reaction as she learns the news.
The Tactics Are Different
All of the above factors mean that Olympic marathons are run differently than something like Berlin or Tokyo, where the top runners target a fast time and hold that pace from the start for as long as possible. Most of those in Olympic marathons care only about place, not time. The races tend to feature a huge lead pack through at least halfway, then one or two big moves after the 25-kilometer mark to break up the pack and sort out the medals.
The relatively moderate opening pace creates opportunities for runners like Ward who wouldn’t be able to keep up with top entrants in a time trial-type race. Even if the opening half marathon feels slow to the fastest entrants, they can cover the second half only so fast. And, as we’ve seen, there are many reasons why the fastest entrants might falter when the real racing begins. There have even been examples of the race-defining move being made by a second-tier entrant striking out on their own, such as eventual bronze medalist de Lima in 2004 and women’s gold medalist Constantina Dita in 2008.
Finding the perfect place from which to launch a bid for a medal takes a cool head, superb knowledge of one’s strengths, and a hunch for which moves matter. “There will always be several who run close to their best in those conditions, so it would be risky to hang back too much,” Pfitzinger says. “The best strategy will likely be to stay near the back of the lead pack or in a second pack that is perhaps 15 to 30 seconds back at halfway and take in fluids so you are ready to move through over the last 10K to 12K. Moving up from perhaps 30 seconds back at 30K to third at the finish is feasible.”
The U.S. Chances
In a normal elite marathon with deep fields, the members of the U.S. squad wouldn’t be expected to finish in the top three. Sisson’s U.S. record of 2:18:29 is the only truly world-class personal best in an era when women running sub-2:20 and men running sub-2:05 has become commonplace.
But by now you should appreciate that the marathons in Paris will be anything but normal. The combined effect of heat, an unprecedented course, tactical races, and field composition should blow up the form charts.
“As a statistician, I don’t think anyone [in the field] has a greater than 50 percent chance of medaling,” Ward says. “The distribution curve is relatively flat,” meaning that there are far more people than usual with a chance of placing in the top 10. A “surprise” medalist is also more likely. Ward, who trains with Mantz and Young says, “They’re positioned much better than I was when I was sixth. I was pretty fit but I was injured with a fractured pelvis. I hope that’s motivating to them.”
ISO: Boy Who Inspired Dakotah Lindwurm at 35K.
“I believe in every Olympic cycle that the United States sends athletes capable of medaling, and Paris is no exception,”she says. “The key will be that they are prepared for the weather and the extreme hills they will be facing on the course. Conservative might win the race, but the world talent is so great that the leaders have to be in sight.”
—Sarah Lorge Butler contributed to the reporting.
