Jordan Hasay’s third-place finish in 2:20:57 at the Chicago Marathon represents a surprising breakthrough in top-tier American women’s marathoning. Here are six reasons why her Chicago run was so unexpected, three factors that might have foretold it, and a prediction on what’s next for Hasay.

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1. Hasay’s career reached a low point Deena Kastor’s American record, 2:19:36.  Kastor, Shalane Flanagan (now third on the list, 2:21:14) and Joan Benoit Samuelson (fourth, 2:21:21) had all been to the Olympics and brought home medals before achieving their best marathons. Hasay has had much less world-class racing experience.

2. Guide to Pro Runner Form, Hasay’s career reached a low point when she placed 13th (5,000 meters) and ninth (10,000 meters) in the 2016 Olympic Track Trials. Her time in the 10,000 was 32:43.43. 

3. Hasay started too fast in Chicago, covering the first 10K in 32:29 (2:17:20 marathon pace). Coach Alberto Salazar had counseled her to aim no higher than 2:22 pace. However, Hasay felt strong and decided to run tough—on the heels of eventual winner Tirunesh Dibaba. “That’s how you become a great athlete … by going for it,” Salazar said afterward.

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4. Chicago was only Hasay’s second marathon. Last April, she finished third in the Boston Marathon in 2:23:00, the fastest ever first-marathon by an American woman.

5. Superfast first-timers don’t always improve after their debut marathon. A pre-Chicago analysis by LetsRun.com revealed that roughly 70 percent of top first-time men and women marathoners never run faster at any time during the rest of their careers. This and other factors such as her marathon inexperience led many skeptics to doubt that Hasay’s Chicago run could match or improve upon her Boston effort.

6. The Chicago weather wasn’t ideal—warm and breezy. Big marathon breakthroughs generally only occur with perfect conditions. Chicago weather has been better many times in the past and definitely wasn’t optimal this year.

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1. Hasay has been a distance star for a long time. She won a national Junior Olympic title when she was 13, she was virtually unbeatable during four years of high-school racing in California, and she garnered 18 All-American honors in her four years at the University of Oregon. 

2. After graduating from Oregon in 2013, she joined the Nike Oregon Project team coached by former marathon great Salazar. Hasay’s NOP teammate Galen Rupp, long a Salazar protégé, has won Olympic silver and bronze medals, and scored his first international marathon victory with an impressively long, fast finish surge in Chicago.

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3. She might have found her natural distance. A 1500-meter and mile runner for much of her career, Hasay did little road racing until the last year. Not that she hasn’t had her eye on the longer road distances. Asked about the marathon when she walked off the track at the 2016 Olympic Track Trials, she responded: “I’d love to move up to the marathon tomorrow. Sign me up.” 

What’s Next?

Hasay is a marathoner now. There’s no doubt about it, and no escape. The pressure will be much greater before her next marathon than was in advance of her first two. Can she run faster? Can she get Kastor’s American record?

She’s got a solid fan in her corner. “After I saw Deena run a 2:21, I told her she was going to get my American record,” Benoit Samuelson said on October 8 in Chicago. “After watching Jordan run today, I think she’s going to get Deena’s record.”